Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
