Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
